Sinocentury: Recent Comments

Comment on My opinion on the markets has not materially changed since March 2009

2010-02-02T06:50:36Z

I love to read posts that are very interesting especially those topics that are about financial matters, business and stock market conditions. It is good to read those posts for they broaden our knowledge about different issue concerning the business world. Thanks a lot.

Comment on Good bye Dubai, Good bye Rally

2009-04-06T12:24:03Z

Welcome home! How was your trip to the Middle East? Any new developments in the international relations department?

Comment on Nationalize Now, or Forever Hold Your Peace

2009-02-17T21:08:32Z

i am a bit more optomistic. .full recovery may take 20 years, but i think we will hit bottom within the next 5 to 10 years and then begin a slow recovery. but no doubt it will take a long time to get over this debt bubble which is the biggest in our history at 360% of gdp. we have borrowed from far into the future.

Comment on U.S. markets rally more than 11% today, marking the biggest one-day percentage gain ever!

2008-10-13T23:57:12Z

i agree. previous support around the 1100 level now becomes resistance. today's rally should be viewed as a shifting of focus. focus until now has been depression. i think that has been taken off the table by the actions taken by government. severe recession is still on the table. that will impact profits and that will become the next focus of the stock market. recent lows will be tested. lets just hope they hold.

Comment on Buy S&P500 NOW!

2008-10-10T14:05:20Z

ok, in the midst of panic it is time to take a deep breath, relax, and be logical. the smartest thing i have heard lately was larry lindsey on cnbc this morning.
he looked at ratios of s&p to both gdp and incomes at previous market lows in
1932 and 2002. the same ratios would yield an s&p of just under 800 and dow
7200 today. if you have not sold yet, don't do so. if you have cash , get ready
to buy. when it comes, it will come quickly , so be ready. that is my story and
i am sticking to it. you don't have invest all of your investable funds at that
level. prudence would say to invest half and keep half to invest later. if the
markets don't hold these levels things could get really nasty. if they do hold
these levels, we will get a good bounce of 10 to 20% and then retest these levels
within 6 months. of course, i could be wrong, and the end of time may be coming,
but if it does, nothing matters anyway.

Comment on Buy S&P500 NOW!

2008-10-09T22:00:27Z

Gao Xiang, what are your thoughts on deflation/inflation over the coming years?

Comment on Congratulations, President Obama!

2008-10-08T16:35:20Z

Gregory - my comments from our earlier conversation are cut and copied below. Just to avoid confusion - while I believe McCain's mortgage rescue plan is ridiculous, I never have and never will consider voting for Obama. He is a stereotypical, "us versus them" populist. His entire campaign is based on first convincing Americans that they are downtrodden, in despair, and most importantly, helpless and powerless to do anything to change their circumstance. Step 2 is to convince Americans that he, and only he, is ready willing and able to help them. He's managed to do this without any regard for reality of the situation. For instance, he's stated that he will follow Bin Laden wherever he goes to hunt him down and kill him, including Pakistan. Sounds great, gets people fired up, etc. Only problem is that one country dropping bombs within the borders of another sovereign country is typically frowned upon, particularly when the dropper is trying to court the droppee as an ally. He has no spine - none whatsoever - and he will prove to be one of the worst "leaders" our country has ever seen.

The disclaimer is a bit longwinded and overdramatic, but I just wanted to make sure that there was no impression, none whatsoever, that I would ever consider casting a vote for Obama. That said, here's my thoughts on the McCain bailout plan...

It's an awful, awful, awful proposition.

there are plenty of people out there who 1) didn't buy houses they haven't saved enough money - me; 2) bought a reasonable house at a reasonable price on a standard mortgage and sold at the right time - you; 3) bought a reasonable house at a reasonable price, didn't sell, scared as all heck about the price now, but doing the responsible thing and continuing to take all steps necessary to make payments - several of my friends.

his plan is ridiculous in that 1) it would encourage people to default, thereby increasing foreclosed houses, which increases inventory on the market, which drives prices down 2) encourages people to default on the loans and have them written down to be restructured, thereby forcing more bank writedowns and bank failures, further depressing confidence in our system; and 3) completely destroys all faith that anyone had in contracts and sets the precendent that if you enter a contract with an able and willing counterparty, then later than contract could be voided, to your detriment, if the contract is deemed to be politically unpopular. Mortgage rates increase to >10%.

the only thing i can hang my hat on there is that i don't think that bill would ever go through. i think he's just trying to get elected. unfortunately, i don't think he will.

again - we're in deep, deep trouble when obama gets elected. america is done - we're soft, we've lost our competitive edge, and we're more concerned with being "fair" than we are with being the best. obama is the final nail in the coffin. welcome to socialism.

Comment on And then there were none???

2008-09-26T13:38:57Z

Great article. Very insightful.

Comment on And then there were none???

2008-09-25T17:45:01Z

Hey Greg. Wanted your take on the bailout. I'm on the fence. I hate the debtor nation that we've become, and believe we almost need to let things fail, purge, and rebuild. But then that's not going to be easy. We as a country are so unrealistic, and created this whole issue by borrowing from other countries on the macro end, and spending more than we make on the micro end....but what of those like you and I that did save, that did invest, and that did not subprime our way into the gated country club life yet that may still get carried out in the wash? I"m really expecting tougher times, bail out or none. Maybe a bump up for a week at most if it passes, but that will fade. I bought into your china fund last week, FXI, and am up 16% at the moment. I had planned to add to that position, but may wait for a pullback since it has spiked quickly. I"m in the AEPGX Europac fund in my 401k and it's down 20% on the year, but I'm hoping that begins to show a rally. I'm buying into nat gas stock CHK mostly in the hope that we adopt something like what T Boone suggests, but also because it is knocked down and has to have real tangible value. I've sold out of my speculative bank play with Suntrust, netting about a 50% gain in 2 months, buying into the drop to $20, selling into the rise to $60. I'm heavy walmart, and even though they won't be selling many big screens and high end things this christmas, they have to be a good hedge to this market I think. My other holdings now, besides FLO which due to my position I can't really sell without clearing the insider process, are relatively small positions for me.

Comment on Apparently Chinese Investors Don't Believe in the True Power of Eight!

2008-08-08T21:11:20Z

the fact that shanghai did not rally today probably means the bear is still alive in china. even so, we are probably close to the end of china's bear market. if we can get thru the early fall without a complete meltdown here in the us, the stage will likely be set for a big rally in china. there is a lot of cash built up looking for a home. there may be another bubble in our future. i have two candidates for the next bubble. one is china. the other is gold. and no, china has not yet had a bubble. at shanghai 6000 it was nowhere near a bubble, just a bit ahead of itself. right now fxi pays 2.7% dividend. not bad for a country growing 10%.